基于故障风险标尺的复杂装备健康状态分类模型

针对复杂装备故障呈现出多重性、相关性及模糊性的特点,本文分析了装备健康状态演化规律,利用自适应模糊神经网络、故障模式、影响及危害性分析构建故障风险标尺,实现了对复杂装备故障风险程度的定量化描述及装备健康状态的分类。通过实验分析,本文提出的模型相比于传统的故障预测以及故障风险程度定量方法具有显著优势,实现了对装备从设计生产、部署使用以及退役报废全寿命周期的动态反馈,对提高复杂装备综合保障能力具有重要意义。     

两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析

基于性能退化数据对产品进行可靠性分析一直是可靠性工程领域研究的热点与难点。针对多阶段退化过程中存在的非线性规律,同时考虑变点位置位于测试时刻之间的一般情形且各试样变点存在个体差异性的实际情况,提出了基于Wiener过程的两阶段非线性退化模型,给出了模型参数极大似然估计方法,建立了可靠性分析和寿命预测方法。最后通过高压脉冲电容器实例的对比分析,验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。结果表明,与多阶段线性Wiener过程方法相比,所提方法能够更加准确地描述退化过程的非线性时变特征,进而得到更为合理的寿命评估结果。     

基于控制变量估计的高超声速再入滑翔目标轨迹预测算法

以高超声速再入滑翔目标为研究对象,在对目标机动控制变量进行建模分析的基础上提出了一种轨迹预测算法。首先,基于动力学建模构建了目标跟踪模型,利用气动参数对目标状态向量进行扩维并推导了对应的运动模型。其次,构造了适用于轨迹预测的目标机动控制变量,在不同机动模式下分析了控制变量的变化规律,基于控制变量设计了对应运动方程以及轨迹预测模型。最后,仿真生成了两条轨迹并对所提算法进行了仿真验证,分析了算法性能。仿真结果表明所提轨迹预测算法能够取得较好的预测效果。     

基于概率图的作战任务智能规划方法

针对人工调配作战资源及规划方案效率低下的问题，本文提出一种基于概率图的作战任务智能规划方法，通过统计分析判定任务间因果关系，采用GNN抽取任务中的关键事件构建概率图并计算任务规划方案成功的概率，进而基于时间序列方法预测战场态势变化，实现辅助指挥员智能决策。最后，本文在某联合登岛案例中开展了方法验证，结果表明，所提出的方法可成功实现任务规划并具有可解释性，可实现对战场态势变化的预测和快速响应，在战场上为军队提供强有力的支持。     

基于深度学习的节假日高速公路交通流预测方法

准确的预测节假日期间高速公路交通流量，能够为节假日高速公路应急管理提供重要的数据基础。利用深度学习的理论框架建立了LSTM-SVR 预测模型，利用BP 神经网络对样本数据进行处理，再将LSTM 捕获的数据特征输入SVR 回归层中实现交通流预测。选取“ 十一” 黄金周前后时段，利用位于丽江市的交调站流量监测数据对LSTM-SVR 模型进行验证，并将LSTM-SVR 模型与其它模型预测效果进行对比。发现LSTM-SVR 模型在节假日不同时段、天气、流量状态下的高速公路交通流预测中有较好的适用性。     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

低渗透储层流体非线性渗流机理及特征分析

基于微尺度渗流效应，分析了低渗透油藏非线性渗流机理，根据力学平衡方程和压汞实验数据，建立了低渗透储层流体非线性渗流数学模型，分析了非线性渗流特征，并引入动态阻力梯度概念，实现对低渗储层非线性渗流的动态表征。结果表明，边界层、流体屈服应力、边界流体体相流体间的表面力对低渗透渗流形成的附加阻力，是非线性渗流的主要原因；非线性渗流特征在不同的驱替压力梯度下一直存在，在低驱替压力梯度下明显，高驱替压力梯度下弱化；采用动态阻力梯度代替启动压力梯度对非线性渗流进行表征更加合理；随着驱替压力梯度的增加，动态驱替梯度曲线特征为先从一个比较高初始值瞬间降落，之后逐渐增大；动态阻力梯度与驱替压力梯度的比值先增大后减小。     

水下航行器附连水质量的理论及实验研究

以二维无限长圆柱在水下的垂向振动为例,对其有限区域的不可压缩流场进行分析;通过数值计算并借鉴刘易斯法,分析了水域宽度比、水深比和浸没深度比等无量纲参数对刚体附连水质量的影响;提出了水下航行器附连水质量的快速预测公式.结果表明:刚性壁面可使刚体的附连水质量增大,但当刚体与壁面的距离增加到一定程度(截面半径的5倍)时,刚性壁面的影响可以忽略;自由表面可使刚体的附连水质量减小,当刚体与自由表面的距离达到截面半径的6倍时,可以忽略自由表面的影响;当刚体的垂向运动频率较高或刚体与自由表面的距离较大时,可以认为自由表面的速度势为零.     

An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Novelty,coherence, and Mendeleev’s periodic table

Predictivism is the view that successful predictions of “novel” evidence carry more confirmational weight than accommodations of already known evidence. Novelty, in this context, has traditionally been conceived of as temporal novelty. However temporal predictivism has been criticized for lacking a rationale: why should the time order of theory and evidence matter? Instead, it has been proposed, novelty should be construed in terms of use-novelty, according to which evidence is novel if it was not used in the construction of a theory. Only if evidence is use-novel can it fully support the theory entailing it. As I point out in this paper, the writings of the most influential proponent of use-novelty contain a weaker and a stronger version of use-novelty. However both versions, I argue, are problematic. With regard to the appraisal of Mendeleev’ periodic table, the most contentious historical case in the predictivism debate, I argue that temporal predictivism is indeed supported, although in ways not previously appreciated. On the basis of this case, I argue for a form of so-called symptomatic predictivism according to which temporally novel predictions carry more confirmational weight only insofar as they reveal the theory’s presumed coherence of facts as real.